Real Money: CRE Investors Raise More Than $8.3 Billion in October

Companies and funds reported raising $8.34 billion in October for real estate-related investments and financing. The amount raised brings the total inflow for the first nine months of the year to $79.28 billion from approximately 1,461 funds and firms.   CoStar Group tracks the fundraising activity of almost 2,000 entities on an ongoing basis and adds about 125 new entities per month.   For October 16 different funds and firms reported raising $3.88 billion earmarked for debt repayment; another 20 entities raised $1.45 billion for non-property-related investments, including debt, mortgage or securities purchases.

That leaves approximately $3.01 billion of the money raised available for property investments. At a conservative 65% loan-to-value ratio, the money raised in October that could go towards property purchases would generate about $9 billion in buying power.   Property sales of $1 million or more have totaled more than $15 billion in both September and August, according to CoStar Group’s COMPs database. (Additional October sales deals may be tallied as they are confirmed by CoStar’s research or included in public records. However, so far CoStar has verified more than $15 billion already in such sales.)

Of the total amount raised in October, $4.82 billion was from publicly offered shares in REITs and real estate operating companies with $3.88 billion specifically to be used debt repayment or refinancing. The other $3.5 billion came from private fund raising efforts and is all earmarked for new investment.   Pooled investment funds including private equity and hedge funds raised $1.82 billion far outpacing the $730 they raised in September, the lowest monthly amount for such funds this year.   The highest percentage of funds raised (approximately 28%) was earmarked primarily for office-related investments. Funds targeting lodging and resort investments raised 23% of the total; funds targeting debt/mortgages raised about 22% of the total. Multifamily-related amounts equaled about 9% of the total; retail, 7%; industrial 5% and health care about 3%.

The top three money raisers in October were MGM Resorts International, Brickman Associates and National Real Estate Advisors.

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Hotel Industry Leading Indicator weakens

The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator decreased 1.1% during September after a slight drop of 0.5% during August, reports economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR.  The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry that, on average, leads the industry’s business activity four to five months in advance. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 113.3. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.

“As noted the last few months, the decline in the Hotel Industry Leading Indicator continued in September. This month marks the first month since last August that the six-month growth rate is below its long-term trend, which historically means an upcoming slowdown in growth for the industry,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. The indicator provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

LINKS

  • Full Article from HNN & eforecasting.com
  • What is HIL an overview from STR and Maria Simos
  • How to analyze the US hotel business cycle
  • More on eForecasting
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    Apple REIT Acquires 16-Hotel Portfolio for $291M

    Apple REIT Nine Inc. has acquired 16 Marriott and Hilton branded hotels from White Lodging Services Corp. for $291.5 million.   The transaction includes hotels in seven states totaling 2,240 rooms. The properties include the SpringHill Suites, Residence Inns, Courtyard by Marriott, Hilton Garden Inn, Fairfield Inn & Suites and Embassy Suites brands.  All properties will remain with Merrillville, IN-based White Lodging under long-term management agreements. White Lodging’s managed portfolio includes 151 hotels in 18 states and includes the Marriott International, Hilton  Worldwide, Hyatt Global, Starwood Hotels and Resorts, InterContinental Hotel Group and Carlson Hotels Worldwide brands.

    The sale includes these properties:

    Location, Franchise, Rooms, Price , Price per Room

    • Indianapolis, SpringHill Suites, 130, $12.8 mil. , $98,461
    • Mishawaka, IN, Residence Inn, 106, $13.7 mil.,  $129,245
    • Phoenix, Courtyard, 164, $16 mil., $97,560
    • Phoenix, Residence Inn, 129, $14 mil.
    • Lake Forest, IL, Residence Inn, 130, $23.5 mil.
    • Lake Forest, IL, Hilton Garden Inn, 170, $30.5 mil.
    • Austin, TX, Hilton Garden Inn, 117, $16 mil.
    • Novi, MI, Hilton Garden Inn, 148, $16.2 mil.
    • Warrenville, IL, Hilton Garden Inn, 135, $22 mil.
    • Schaumburg, IL, Hilton Garden Inn, 166, $20.5 mil.
    • Salt Lake City, SpringHill Suites, 143, $17.5 mil.
    • Austin, Fairfield Inn & Suites, 150, $17.75 mil.
    • Austin, Courtyard, 145, $20 mil.
    • Chandler, AZ, Courtyard, 150, $17 mil.
    • Chandler, AZ, Fairfield Inn & Suites, 110, $12 mil.
    • Tampa, FL, Embassy Suites, 147, $21.8 mil.
    • Click here for full article….
    • Paid $129,910 average price per room (JLD)
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    Chinese Modular Hotel Construction: 136 total hours

    Ark Hotel – to explain the video in detail: 48 hours of construction time is the accrued time of construction. workers rest after 10pm everyday. As you may see on the left corner the clicker registers 46 hours as time to finish the main structural components, and another 90 hours to finish the building enclosure. For a building of this size a conventional approach would take anywhere from 3 months to anything goes. “

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    Lower-tier extended stay coming back fast

    STR categorizes extended-stay hotels as tiered into two categories: upper- and lower-tiered brands. The upper tier includes brands such as Residence Inn, Staybridge Suites, Homewood Suites and Hawthorn Suites. Lower-tier brands include Extended Stay America, Mainstay Suites, Candlewood Suites and Value Place. When comparing the performances of the two tiers of branded extended-stay hotels, the upper-tier hotels consistently average a higher occupancy level. However, on a 12-month moving average, the lower-tier extended-stay hotels have bounced back at a faster rate (7.8% growth) than the upper-tier extended-stay hotels (2.6% growth) through July 2010.

    On the average daily rate front, the upper-tier extended-stay brands had a US$50 to US$66 rate premium over the lower-tier extended-stay brands. Since 2001, percent changes in rates for both tiers generally have been along the same lines. However, during the 12-month period through July 2010 the lower-tiered extended-stay hotels discounted their rates by 11.4% while upper-tiered extended-stay hotels have discounted only by 6.2%. This percent-change relationship is reversed from the 12-month performance through July 2002 (during the last economic downturn). During that period, lower-tiered hotels discounted their rates by 3.6% versus the upper-tier hotel discounting of 6.9%.

    On a revenue-per-available-room basis, the deeper discounting strategy to attract more occupancy for the lower-tier extended-stay hotels only resulted in a 4.5% decline on a 12-month average through July 2010. However, the upper-tier extended-stay hotels discounted at almost half that rate and gained less than half the percent growth in occupancy as the lower-tiered hotels but only declined 3.8% in RevPAR.

    When looking at supply and demand growth trends, there were huge additions to both upper- and lower-tier extended-stay brands in 2000 and 2001, but that was in line with the double-digit growth in demand for those hotels. During the 12-month period ending July 2009, there was 8.6% growth in lower-tier extended-stay hotels and 10% growth in upper-tier extended stay hotels. This exceeded the demand decline in the lower tier of 0.5% and modest increase of 1.9% in the upper-tier extended-stay hotels during the same period. However, as of the 12-month period ending July 2010, supply growth has remained healthy (6.5% in the lower tier and 8.5% in the upper tier), but has not come close to the demand growth for those hotels (14.8% in the lower tier and 11.4% in the upper tier).

    When evaluating total room revenue in the two tiers since 2000, the most robust growth was reported in 2000 and 2001 (12 months ending July). There also was a double-digit upsurge in room-revenue growth in 2005 and 2006. As expected, in the 12-month period ending July 2009, revenues were down for both tiers (6.5% decline in lower-tier extended-stay hotels and 3.2% decline in upper-tier extended-stay hotels). However both are now reporting revenue gains, with the upper-tier hotels leading the pack (1.7% increase in lower-tier hotels and 4.4% gain in upper-tier hotels during the 12-month period ending July 2010).

    Click here for full article from Hotel News Now….

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    Walking away is easy to do at Hyatt

    The decision by Hyatt Hotels to abandon the Hyatt Regency Princeton after falling behind on the mortgage. At the time, we contrasted the corporate decision to abandon a property it no longer wanted with similar decisions that countless Americans are making about their homes.  Now we know how the decision to walk away affected Hyatt: It made money, at least on paper. Here’s how the company puts it in the10-Q it filed on Wednesday:

    “A pre-tax gain of $35 million was realized on extinguishment of the $45 million secured mortgage debt.  … The pre-tax gain of $35 million has beenrecognized in other income (loss), net on our condensed consolidated statements of income (loss).”

    The reason is pretty straightforward: The company carried a liability of $45 million on its books for the mortgage, and eliminated it. Reversing an obligation typically generates income in accounting — not hard cash, certainly, but it has the effect of contributing to net income on the financial statements.  Considering that Hyatt reported $46 million in pre-tax income for the quarter, the $35 million from Hyatt’s strategic default wasn’t inconsequential. All in all, not a bad outcome for a “strategic default,” to borrow a phrase from the Fannie Mae executive we cited in our previous post on this hotel.  Meantime, we hear that employees at the hotel are pretty nervous about what’s it all means for them, understandably. Hyatt offers a little information in the filing (on p. 12):

    “The hotel continues to be operated as a Hyatt-branded hotel; however, the lender has the option to terminate Hyatt as the manager within one year after the ownership transfer. If the lender does not exercise the termination option within one year, our management agreement will terminate in 2021.”

    So there’s a good chance the hotel will continue to operate, owned either by the lenders or by other investors if it’s sold again. Hyatt may even continue running it — collecting a management fee in the process.  So for Hyatt, walking away seems to be relatively painless.   That isn’t always the case for a lot of Americans.  Click here for full story…

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    Real life story: Profitable hotel owner sees foreclosure, bureaucratic bungles, loss of entire fortune….

    Chandrakant Patel was forced out of Uganda in 1972, leaving behind his business and possessions, one of thousands of Ugandans of East Indian descent ousted by the late dictator Idi Amin.  After working for 25 years building hospitality properties in Grants and Santa Rosa, he is once again seeing his entrepreneurial efforts slip through his fingers.  Patel and his family started building a 121-room Four Points by Sheraton hotel at 1660 University Blvd. NE in 2007. But the failure of his lender and its subsequent takeover by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in May 2009 has left the project sitting idle for nearly two years, when it was three months from completion.  The complex tale was described by Halsey Minor, founder of CNET, in a recent article in the Huffington Post, under the provocative headline, “FDIC: The Government’s Job Killer.” Minor is facing a similar situation with a hotel project in Charlottesville, Va.

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    California Hotel Foreclosure Activity Stacks Up

    Atlas Hospitality Group reports that 529 California hotels were in default or had been foreclosed by the end of the third quarter – a nearly 11% increase from the second quarter of the year and a 71.2% increase over the same quarter last year.  The number of foreclosed hotels grew from 100 in the second quarter to 119 in the third quarter and is up nearly 92% from the beginning of the year.  Independent hotels make up three-quarters of the hotels in foreclosure.

    Of the 119 hotel foreclosures, only 20 have been re-sold to new buyers, Atlas says. Although the re-sales represent less than 17% of the foreclosed inventory, the company notes that the figure is an improvement over the second quarter, when only 12% of foreclosed hotels had been sold.  Atlas attributes the growth in foreclosed hotel sales to two causes: lenders, realizing the operational difficulties involved in running hotels, are increasingly deciding to sell versus hold; and buyer price expectations have risen.  Atlas cautions that California’s hotel market still has a huge shadow inventory of distressed properties that are operating under forbearance agreements. The firm estimates the shadow inventory to include as many as 1,000 hotels.  From Mortageorb.com….

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    How to Profit from Failing Banks and Defaulting Hotels

    Brightside Alliance Fund Target Bank List 16/10/2010

    Alex Pape:

    Opportunity abounds – When the FDIC seizes and sells a bank, whoever buys it often typically takes on only the healthy parts of the bank, usually leaving the FDIC with most of the so-called toxic assets. In short, the buyer makes out like a bandit.  The same goes for hotel buyers. With hotels in default on their loans, buyers can snap them up at fire-sale prices, either debt-free or with very low-interest loans, making it easier for them to turn a profit.  I see the opportunity. Unfortunately, I can’t just go buy a failing bank or hotel. I don’t have that kind of cash, and besides, I’m no expert at running either of those businesses.

    Problem? What problem? Problem solved. I can invest in publicly traded companies created solely to take advantage of these deals. The masterminds behind Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), Pebblebrook Investment Trust (NYSE: PEB), and Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK), which have landed some of those opportunities, are my favorite way to profit from them.    Gerald Ford (no relation to the former president) is a billionaire because he’s exceptional at one thing: successfully turning around banks. Ford has been around the block and then some. Over the two decades following his start in 1975, he bought 30 banks and five thrifts, eventually selling them for a total of $605 million.

    That sum is impressive, but it’s pocket change compared to Ford’s next play. In 1994, he and a partner bought First Nationwide Bank for $1.1 billion. After rolling up a few other banks, they sold it in 2002 to Citigroup for $5.3 billion.  Clearly, this guy knows what he’s doing.  Now he’s at it again — and this time, you can come along for the ride. Ford is chairman of Hilltop Holdings, a shell company sitting on $780 million in cash earmarked to buy up failing banks, turn them around, and sell them at a profit. Unlike Ford’s previous investment vehicles, this one is publicly traded, giving us the opportunity to invest in Ford’s bank-buying acumen during a time of record numbers of bank failures.

    Pebblebrook Investment Trust  - Roughly $30 billion in hotel debt has either come due in the last year, or will in the next two. That has already left many hotel owners high and dry, since they haven’t been generating nearly enough profit in the last couple of years to pay off their loans. As those loans come due, we’re seeing more and more hotels go into default.  Enter Jon Bortz, who’s made a living taking advantage of debt-laden hotels. He started out by working his way up the ranks in real estate company Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL), eventually starting its hotel investment division. In 1998, he branched out on his own, formingLaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO), which saw a tremendous run-up in the subsequent 10 years as the company bought up 31 hotels.

    After retiring from LaSalle Hotel Properties in September 2009, Bortz didn’t remain on the golf links long. He launched his new venture, Pebblebrook Investment Trust, last December, raising $350 million in an IPO. In less than a year, Bortz has already bought up five hotels, with deals in the works for more.  And he isn’t just buying up any old hotels. Bortz is focusing on iconic hotels in major coastal cities — great assets that have stumbled recently because of oversized debt commitments, such as the Sir Francis Drake in San Francisco and the Hotel Monaco in Washington, D.C. Pebblebrook picks up the hotels without the huge debt burdens they previously bore — and through the company’s shares, we have the ability to put our money in Bortz’s able hands.

    Leucadia National  - Often described as a miniature Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), Leucadia National operates much like Warren Buffett’s brainchild. Just as Buffett took over Berkshire’s textile business and redeployed its capital to better investments, star investors Joseph Steinberg and Ian Cumming took over commercial financing company Leucadia (then called Talcott National), using the cash it generates to invest elsewhere.  Why do I include Leucadia on this list? After all, Steinberg and Cumming are generalists, not experts in a particular area like Ford or Bortz. However, Leucadia’s leaders are taking advantage of opportunities I’m not even seeing. They’ve made great deals in iron and copper mines, timberland, casinos, and vineyards, just to name a few. The results speak for themselves: Over the last 30 years, Steinberg and Cumming have compounded book valueper share by 18.5% per year — and the stock price has more than kept pace with that growth.

    Invest in great investors – You might not be able to buy First Nationwide Bank or the Sir Francis Drake Hotel, but that doesn’t mean you can’t profit off them. You just need stock in the companies controlled by the investors making these deals. Then, sit back and let the experts do their thing.

    Click here for more on Alex Pape

    1. Click here for bank list by Brightside Alliance Fund Target Bank List 2010 by Closing Date
    2. Click here for bank list by Brightside Alliance Fund Target Bank List 2010 by US State
    3. Click here for bank list by Brightside Alliance Fund Target Bank List 2010 by Most Recent
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    U.S. Fed committee finds economic setbacks

    WASHINGTON, D.C.—Participants of the 21 September joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve board of governors concluded the pace of the economic expansion slowed during the past few months, but it is unlikely the economy will re-enter a recession.  Based on the slower pace, the group lowered its projection for the increase in real economic activity during the second half of 2010. They also slightly reduced the forecast of growth next year, but continue to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 and a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. Minutes of the meeting were released 12 October.

    In the intermeeting period, banks continued to report elevated losses on commercial real-estate loans, especially construction and land-development loans. Credit remained readily available for larger corporations with access to financial markets, and there were signs that credit conditions began to improve for smaller companies.  Survey indicators of business conditions softened further in August, according to participants. Incoming construction data indicated business investment in nonresidential structures decreased during the second quarter, but at a slower pace than over the preceding year.

    Commercial real-estate markets continued to face difficult financial conditions, but there were some signs the sector might be stabilizing. The prices of commercial properties edged up during the first half of the year and the volume of commercial real-estate sales rose again in August.  Meeting attendees said a few small commercial mortgage-backed securities deals were issued over the intermeeting period and were reportedly well-received by investors, consistent with an easing of conditions and renewed interest in the CMBS market since the beginning of the year. But the volume of CMBS issuance in 2010 remains very low compared to levels seen before the onset of the financial crisis and total commercial mortgage debt continued to contract amid further increases in delinquency rates on commercial mortgages.

    Other indicators discussed at the meeting:

    • Overall inflation is projected to remain subdued
    • Consumer confidence remained muted
    • Households more pessimistic
    • Bank loans continued to contract
    • Commercial and industrial loans rose slightly in July
    • Commercial real-estate loans contracted further in August

    The next joint meeting is scheduled for 2 and 3 November.

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      Top 25 U.S. markets have ground to make up

      The top 25 markets in the United States have some work to do to get back to previous operating levels.   The markets need to make up, on average, US$17 in rate and 1.25 million rooms sold to make up the ground lost to the recent downturn, STR COO Brad Garner said during the Hotel Data Conference sponsored by STR and HotelNewsNow.com and presented by Gaylord Hotels.  “The way these numbers decrease seems to keep getting worse (during each downturn),” Garner said of operating fundamentals. “But the snapback is still there.”  During the previous downturn earlier this decade, it took the markets 52 months to make up US$9.35 of ADR. The markets still have to make up US$18 of ADR 22 months into the current downturn.   “We’re sure it’s going to go back up,” Garner said of ADR, “but at what kind of pace?”

      The markets comprising the top 25 (which excludes Las Vegas) is a sizable chunk of the U.S. hotel industry. The group represents approximately 11,500 properties, 1.5 million rooms and accounts for 42% of the country’s revenue and 31% of supply.  Rate year-to-date for the top 25 through June is down 2.3% to US$116.89, he added. But revenue per available room has increased by 3.9% to US$73.87 and occupancy is up 6.4% to 63.2%.  “We’re of the belief that rates have been pre-negotiated so it could be sometime before we see growth,” Garner said. “There’s a choppy road ahead.”  Rate growth might not resume until the end of 2011, he said.  Through June, occupancy was higher every day of the week when compared to the same period in 2009. Transient demand is also at a higher level than it was in 2008 and 2009, Garner said.  “If transient demand is back,” Garner asked attendees, “why aren’t we charging for it?”

      Transient average daily rate lags 2008 by US$22, or 17%, and room nights sold trail 2008’s level by 106,000 rooms, Garner said.  “There’s been a major reset of pricing,” he said.  New York has had a big effect on the top 25, Garner said.  With New York out of the equation, year-to-date ADR losses drop to 2.6% from 2% for the total U.S.  “For New York to make it move six-tenths of a point is tremendous,” Garner said. Demand gains, meanwhile, would fall to 8.3% from 8.8% when compared to the top 25 if not for the Big Apple.   While New York is at its peak in terms of rooms sold, rate is still US$62 away from its peak reached in September 2008.  There could be a little bit of an AIG-effect going on in New York, he said.  “My sense is transient has held up very well,” Garner said. “But no one booked a large amount of rooms; no one wanted to be viewed as that CEO who was being excessive (by booking group rooms in New York).”  From Hotel News Now…..

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      Federal Way 3-tower skyscraper project gets extension

      Federal Way city leaders pressed developers with questions during a heated discussion Tuesday night before narrowly granting them six more months to buy city land for building a three-tower skyscraper project reaching 45 stories in downtown.  The City Council voted 4-3 to extend the closing date to sell its property to Twin Development for $6.1 million from Sept. 30 to March 31.

      Some council members voiced concerns about what steps Twin Development has planned to raise money for the project. They asked the developers to disclose any business and marketing plan they have to generate money for the project.   Steve Smith, one of Twin Development’s three partners, first said he would give the plan to the council. But after another partner, Luke Hwang, declined to do so because some of the details would become public, Smith said he misspoke. Click here for full story from tribune…

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      Deutsche Bank says 2/3 of loans maturing from now through 2018 cannot be refinanced

      Deutsche Bank says 2/3 of loans maturing from now through 2018 cannot be refinanced. On a national scale, a recent Deutsche Bank report estimated that at least two-thirds of CMBS loans maturing between now and 2018 will unlikely qualify for refinancing at maturity without significant equity infusions from borrowers. We believe this estimate reasonably applies to the other CRE loans (i.e. non-CMBS loans).

      IMF says $566 billion in CRE debt comes due in 2010 and 2011 in the U.S. Again at a national level, the IMF report cited earlier said that in the United States, $566 billion in CRE debt comes due this year and next. By the end of 2012, Deutsche Bank says the total CRE debt due will exceed $1 trillion! As a point of reference, note that about 25% of the CRE loans are CMBS loans. The rest are from banks, insurance companies and other lenders.

      Fitch gives shocking numbers. A few days ago, a Fitch report said that despite the declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the Great Recession is over . . .

      • 10 states have CMBS loan delinquency rates in excess of 10% ranging up to a staggering 25% delinquency for Nevada.
      • In September, hotel delinquencies in CMBS exceeded 21%.

      The real key to a turnaround is employment.

      While the hospitality industry fundamentals seem to be bouncing along a “bottom” with slowly improving fundamentals, we don’t see significant improvement until the employment picture in the U.S. really picks up.

      Although some economic indicators have been encouraging lately, as Fitch Ratings Managing Director Mary MacNeill said recently, “National employment underpins demand for every property type and a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy foretells continued challenges ahead for commercial real estate.”

      If employment is the key, things do not look good.

      According to New York Times reporter, Catherine Rampell, in an article published October 8:

      For the 14.8 million people out of work, the picture is not brightening. The average duration of unemployment continues to hover at record highs. In September, the typical unemployed worker had been searching for a job for 33.3 weeks.

      The most optimistic projections we have seen suggest employment begins to turn around in mid to late 2011 . Perhaps it takes a few quarters for that beginning to begin to affect consumer and business mindsets. Maybe it takes a year or two. It is hard to envision a significant improvement in employment until 2012 or 2013 at the earliest.

      Then consider the daunting shadow supply of defaulting and to-be-foreclosed real estate as lenders finally come to grips with severely over-leveraged CRE, including hotels. Most lenders cannot be long-term owners of distressed real estate, so they will be forced to sell the distressed real estate at some point, particularly as they see little benefit in longer holding periods with slow property value increases, and are forced to deal with new regulations and higher capital requirements.   From Jim Butler’s Hotel Blog at http://hotellaw.jmbm.com/2010/10/distress_continues.html

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      Hilton workers in Chicago start 3-day strike

      Hundreds of Hilton Chicago Hotel workers have started a three-day strike that union officials say is in protest of the hotel chain’s efforts to “lock workers into cheap recession contracts.”  Unite Here Local 1 spokeswoman Annemarie Strassel told The Associated Press workers began striking in Chicago Saturday and won’t return to their jobs until Tuesday.  Hilton Chicago told the Chicago Tribune that the hotel is “operating as normal.”

      She says the union represents about 600 workers at the Hilton Chicago downtown. Strassel says the employees have joined striking workers in San Francisco, who went out Wednesday, and in Honolulu, who went out Thursday.  More than 8,000 workers at five Hiltons in the Chicago area saw their contracts expire in August 2009.  Click here for full AP article…

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      Atlanta #1 in ADR increase to US$94.64

      Atlanta experienced the largest ADR increase, rising 10.8 percent to US$94.64, followed by New York, New York, with a 10.2-percent increase to US$280.39. Denver (-3.4 percent to US$99.13) and St. Louis (-3.4 percent to US$82.31) reported the largest ADR decreases for the week.

      Five markets posted RevPAR increases of more than 15 percent: New Orleans (+29.3 percent to US$97.52); Atlanta (+28.4 percent to US$60.71); Dallas (+19.8 percent to US$55.86); Miami-Hialeah, Florida (+17.9 percent to US$93.06); and Orlando, Florida (+15.7 percent to US$58.16). Two markets reported RevPAR decreases of more than 5 percent: St. Louis (-7.6 percent to US$50.07) and Denver (-5.3 percent to US$65.80).

      View U.S. hotel review for week ending 9 October.

      Click here for full report from HNN Newswire 15 October.

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      Global Hospitality Advisor: National implications of the July 2010 Atlas Hospitality Group distressed hotels survey

      Hotel Lawyer with a cold splash of realism from new economic data! If you are not ready for the “long haul,” it is time to reassess your strategies . . .

      The hotel lawyers of JMBM’s Global Hospitality Group® believe investors, borrowers and lenders should assess their options and develop their strategies based on realistic assumptions and the latest hard data. If you haven’t seen the latest, this is worth looking at.  On October 6, 2010, the International Monetary Fund or IMF released its latest appraisal of the situation for real estate on a global basis (in a report entitled World Economic Outlook October 2010 Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing). The conclusion was that the prospects in the global real estate sector are “dismal,” with a downturn that could last eight years.

      “Especially in the United States, given the limited success of mortgage modification programs and the shadow inventory from foreclosures and delinquencies, this has renewed fears of a double dip in real estate markets. A lot will depend on the path of economic recovery: if employment creation remains low, risks of a double dip in housing naturally increase,” the IMF said.  But the IMF data is not all that is new. Let’s take a look at some other significant data points, including those from Fitch, Deutsche Bank and Atlas Hospitality.

      Scary “shadow inventory” from foreclosures and delinquencies

      The IMF study stated that the overhang of shadow inventory might be serious enough to trigger the long-feared double dip economic retreat (but the IMF still does not “expect” a double dip). And whether or not it causes a double dip in real estate markets or whole economies, the overhang of distressed inventory clearly has negative implications for all real estate values.

      How big is the shadow inventory?

      It is hard to find a single report that gives a comprehensive picture of the commercial real estate (CRE) or hotel inventory problem in the U.S. Here are some data points that we try to tie together for your convenience.

      Atlas Hospitality says California alone may have 1,500 hotels in shadow inventory. We have observed many times that California appears to be good barometer for the U.S. hotel industry, and we like the detail of the Atlas Hospitality surveys. A few days ago, Atlas released its latest update (through 2010 Q3) to it Distressed California Hotels Survey with interesting highlights including the following:

      • The number of hotels in default or foreclosed on continued to increase through the third quarter as did the number of foreclosed hotels re-selling to new buyers.
      • Atlas believes these increases will continue through the end of 2010 and will accelerate into 2011.
      • There is a disproportionate number of hotels operating under some form of forbearance agreement, which is creating a huge “shadow” inventory of distressed deals that are yet to hit the default market. estimates that this inventory is as high as 1,000 hotels in addition to the 529 in default or foreclosed.

      Deutsche Bank says 2/3 of loans maturing from now through 2018 cannot be refinanced. On a national scale, a recent Deutsche Bank report estimated that at least two-thirds of CMBS loans maturing between now and 2018 will unlikely qualify for refinancing at maturity without significant equity infusions from borrowers. We believe this estimate reasonably applies to the other CRE loans (i.e. non-CMBS loans).    From JMBM.com…

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      Sheraton Center City sold to Blackstone in Columbia Sussex package

      Among the package of 14 hotels that Blackstone Group L.P. of New York has bought from Columbia Sussex Corp. in exchange for acquiring its debt is the Sheraton City Center at 17th and Race Streets.  ”I think change is good, in general, and I think the staff is excited about moving forward with new ownership,” Paul Schwartz, general manager of the hotel for the last five years, said Thursday.  But the scope of that change, and whether the hotel will remain a Sheraton or become another brand under the new owner, remains to be seen.

      Blackstone Group, which also owns Hilton Hotels Corp. and is considered the largest private-equity firm in the world, did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Nor did Columbia Sussex, of Crestview Hills, Ky.  What is known is that Blackstone bought the junior debt on the 14 hotels last week, and it could move to seize ownership of them. It did own the hotels five years ago.  In 2005, Blackstone paid $1.4 billion in equity for the former Wyndham International Inc. and sold half the Wyndham hotel portfolio to Columbia Sussex later that year.

      Known as the Wyndham Franklin Plaza Hotel at the time, the property became a Sheraton under Columbia Sussex.  A June report by Fitch Ratings Inc. said a $539 million mortgage on the hotels that was due this month had been turned over to a firm specializing in troubled commercial-property loans because of imminent default.  Blackstone, which is expanding its lodging holdings, has bought portions of mezzanine debt tied to that mortgage from a contingent of banks and hedge funds that may allow it to take over the hotels as early as this month, according to Fitch. Among them were Northstar Realty Finance Corp., Fortress Investment Group L.L.C., and Bank of America Corp.  Though Sheraton City Center’s immediate future is in flux, hoteliers and convention officials underscored its importance to the downtown mix.  Click here for full report from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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      Denver’s Ritz-Carlton earns AAA’s 5-diamond award

      The Ritz-Carlton, Denver has been awarded AAA’s five-diamond award for hotels, its highest ranking, the American Automobile Association announced Thursday.  The Ritz-Carlton, at 1881 Curtis St., is the only hotel in Denver, and one of just four in Colorado, that will carry the auto club’s five-diamond rating in 2011, up from three this year.  “To achieve this distinguished rating is very exciting not only for Ritz-Carlton, but also an honor for the city of Denver,” hotel general manager Andrew Rogers said in a statement. “Our [staff] should be incredibly proud, as at the end of the day this is a real testament of our service commitment to our guests.”  The 202-room Ritz is the redevelopment of an Embassy Suites hotel building that opened in early 2008.

      The three other Colorado hotels to be awarded AAA’s five diamonds for next year:

      • The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, which has received the honor for 35 consecutive years.
      • The Little Nell in Aspen, for a 20th year.
      • The Ritz-Carlton, Bachelor Gulch, in Beaver Creek, for a sixth year.

      The Penrose restaurant at The Broadmoor is Colorado’s only AAA five-diamond-rated restaurant.  AAA, with some 51 million members, evaluates 60,000 lodging establishments and restaurants each year for its ratings, which appear in TourBooks distributed to AAA members and online.  Click here for full report…

      AAA 2010 Five Diamond Fact Sheet

      AAA 2010 Five Diamond Restaurants

      AAA 2010 Five Diamond Lodgings

      More information on AAA (Newsroom)

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      HOTEL REIT: How REITs Work

      REITs offer the benefit of owning real estate without having to be a landlord.   Investing in income-generating real estate can be a great way to increase your net worth. But for many people, investing in real estate, particularly commercial real estate, is simply out of reach financially. But what if you could pool your resources with other small investors and invest in large-scale commercial real estate as a group? REITs (pronounced like “treats”) allow you to do just that.  REIT stands for real estate investment trust and is sometimes called “real estate stock.” Essentially, REITs are corporations that own and manage a portfolio of real estate properties and mortgages. Anyone can buy shares in a publicly traded REIT. They offer the benefits of real estate ownership without the headaches or expense of being a landlord.

      Investing in some types of REITs also provides the important advantages of liquidity and diversity. Unlike actual real estate property, these shares can be quickly and easily sold. And because you’re investing in a portfolio of properties rather than a single building, you face less financial risk.   REITs came about in 1960, when Congress decided that smaller investors should also be able to invest in large-scale, income-producing real estate. It determined that the best way to do this was the follow the model of investing in other industries — the purchase of equity.

      A company must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to its shareholders each year to qualify as a REIT. Most REITs pay out 100 percent of their taxable income. In order to maintain its status as a pass-through entity, a REIT deducts these dividends from its corporate taxable income. A pass-through entity does not have to pay corporate federal or state income tax — it passes the responsibility of paying these taxes onto its shareholders. REITs cannot pass tax losses through to investors, however.  From the 1880s to the 1930s, a similar provision was in place that allowed investors to avoid double taxation — paying taxes on both the corporate and individual level — because trusts were not taxed at the corporate level if income was distributed to beneficiaries. This was reversed in the 1930s, when passive investments were taxed at both the corporate level and as part of individual income tax. REIT proponents were unable to persuade legislation to overturn this decision for 30 years. Because of the high demand for real estate funds, President Eisenhower signed the 1960 real estate investment trust tax provision qualifying REITs as pass-through entities.

      A corporation must meet several other requirements to qualify as a REIT and gain pass-through entity status.  Click here for full “HOW IT WORKS”….

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      TOP TEN NEW BUDGET HOTELS FROM AROUND THE WORLD

      NOTE FROM ED: We love the QBIC, we agree in philosophy 100% with All Seasons, good job ACCOR!

      1. ALL SEASONS HOTEL……..PICS FROM GOOGLE
      2. ETAP HOTEL…….  PICS FROM GOOGLE
      3. IBIS HOTEL ……. PICS FROM GOOGLE (tour click here)
      4. KRIAD HOTEL…….  PICS FROM GOOGLE
      5. PREMIER CLASSE……. PICS FROM GOOGLE
      6. EASY HOTEL……. PICS FROM GOOGLE
      7. YOTEL……. ….. PICS FROM GOOGLE
      8. FORMULA 1 HOTEL……. PICS FROM GOOGLE
      9. QBIC HOTEL……. PICS FROM GOOGLE
      10. DOLBY HOTEL……. PICS FROM GOOGLE

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